Pitching Rotation – Giantspod

Episode 140: Mike “Carl” Yastrzemski

Daniel Zarchy — Sun, 02 Aug 2020 15:30:00 +0000

In the one-hundred-and-fourtieth episode, Thomas and Danny discuss the Giants’ surprising success, the rise of Yaz and Donnie Barrels, Gabe Kapler’s managerial chops, and what the heck is going on with Hunter Pence.Â

You can access the podcast on Apple Podcasts, here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/two-guys-a-glove-and-a-coke-bottle-podcast/id408834389

You can also find it on the RSS feed. We look forward to your feedback, either by commenting here on the blog, emailing us at giantspod@gmail.com, or our Twitter feed. Go Giants!

Episode 137: The Long Lost Drunkisode

Daniel Zarchy — Sat, 02 Dec 2017 16:00:35 +0000

Episode 137: The Long Lost Drunkisode

In the hundred-and-thirty-seventh episode, I don’t remember what Thomas and Danny talked about because it was so long ago and I forgot to post it until just now.

Click on the image below to find it on iTunes:Â

You can also find it on theÂ RSS feed, or by clicking on the play button below. We look forward to your feedback, either by commenting here on the blog, emailing us atÂ giantspod@gmail.com, or ourÂ Twitter feed. Go Giants!

Episode 136: 2017 Catch Up

Daniel Zarchy — Mon, 24 Apr 2017 13:30:46 +0000

Episode 136: 2017 Catch Up

In the hundred-and-thirty-sixth episode, Thomas and Danny talk about how much the Giants suck.

Click on the image below to find it on iTunes:Â

Matt Cain’s Death by Pitch Count

Daniel Zarchy — Sat, 30 Apr 2016 14:00:13 +0000

This week on the podcast, Thomas and I talked about the curious case of Matt Cain’s 2016 season. My theory was that after not pitching much for the last year and a half, and missing time in Spring Training with his cyst issue, he entered the season without the stamina that a starting pitcher would need. That’s why it seems like he’s perfectly fine for the first four innings, before he falls off a cliff.Â Then I saw these charts from his most recent start:

In other words, everything is fine, fine, fine… sitting 91-92, and then BAM, he becomes Barry Zito. Suspicions confirmed! Let’s just look back to his other awful starts to make sure that’s what happened then too. Doesn’t really seem necessary because it fits my narrative so well, but just in case let’s take a look and…

ah dang. There goes that theory. Just for comparison’s sake, let’s look at all fiveÂ of his starts, side by side:

So we see a general trend of velocity issues, but no massive cliff like what I had theorized. Let’s take another look at a nifty feature BrooksBaseball has called “Grooved Pitches.” What you’re going to see here is a breakdown of Cain’s pitches by pitch type, and the percentage of each that Pitch f/x considers “grooved.”

Year	Fourseam	Sinker	Change	Slider	Curve
2007	5.75	7.14	3.49	4.76	3.45
2008	6.35	3.13	3.61	4.55	5.76
2009	7.21	5.92	4.04	6.76	5.69
2010	6.06	4.55	2.41	4.83	6.33
2011	6.66	1.20	2.18	5.53	3.74
2012	7.82	2.75	1.82	7.24	6.97
2013	8.25	4.83	1.52	4.98	6.19
2014	7.13	7.89	1.62	5.43	2.76
2015	6.02	5.06	3.25	5.43	3.81
2016	6.97	16.67	0.00	5.71	8.33

In other words, he’s always grooved some pitches. Every pitcher makes mistakes. But this year he’s grooving almost everything a little more, and his Sinker (which he’s only thrown 18 times) a whole lot more. But the real question is WHY he’s grooving more pitches. Maybe BrooksBaseball doesn’t have the answers I need. Time to turn to my second favorite website, BaseballSavant.com.

Matt Cain has generated 26 swinging strikes (“whiffs”) this season. Let’s take a look.

Meanwhile, he’s given up 27 hits. Let’s look at where those came from, and…

Let’s just focus on fastballs for a second. Cain’s main fastball is a four-seamer, and he also throws a two-seamer, which I’m pretty sure is the same pitch that Pitch f/x considers a sinker. So just talking four-seamers for now, let’s focus on Cain’s ability to generate swinging strikes versus propensity to give up hits.

Here’s every swinging strike Cain has generated with his four-seamer this season:

Aside from the very first one, a pitch to Chase Utley, every one of the whiffs came on a pitch over 90 mph, with the vast majority over 91 mph. The fastest was a 92.8 mph country hardball to wunderkind Trevor Story, while probably the most impressive one was a 91.5 mph, full-count pitch that Paul Goldschmidt probably should’ve taken for ball four:

http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2016/04/20/602814283/1461122124240/asset_1200K.mp4

Hot damn, Matty.

Now let’s look at the hits off four-seamers:

See that second pitch up there, an 89.1 mph fastball to Corey Seager? Yeah, that didn’t go well.

http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2016/04/09/579750383/1460173660897/asset_1200K.mp4

So, weÂ have your anecdotal evidence that Cain seems to fade when he gets to 80+ pitches. But you don’t have a sharp numerical decline like I was expecting to see.Â And even though BrooksBaseball lets us see average velocity per inning…

Inning	Fourseam	Sinker	Change	Slider	Curve
1	90.45	90.96	84.54	84.86	75.53
2	91.29	89.88	85.31	86.18	76.96
3	90.98	89.73	84.73	85.39	77.53
4	91.19	90.82	84.99	85.63	78.71
5	91.11	90.57	85.21	86.12	77.30
6	90.42	0.00	86.02	85.77	76.86

…and it’s trending downward, it’s not trending downward that much, and I would wager that most starting pitchers not named Noah Syndergaard see a drop in decline as pitch counts rise. So what exactly changes that makes Cain lose it? Just one more graph, I promise. Â Percentage of “Groove Pitches” by the inning:

Inning	Fourseam	Sinker	Slider	Curve
1	3.13	0.00	0.00	0.00
2	4.88	0.00	4.76	0.00
3	7.69	25.00	4.00	16.67
4	4.17	20.00	4.17	0.00
5	11.29	25.00	6.98	20.00
6	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00

It’s not like it comes as a big surprise to anyone who has watched him pitch, but he’s just grooving everything as the game goes on. A bit of it is velocity, but mostly it’s just location, location, location.

What does this all mean? Well, Cain has a tendency to throw meatballsÂ as the game wears on, and to make matters worse, his velocity declines a small, but real, amount. Â You can take this evidence as a sign that he’s a shell of his former self, and we’re all going to die cold and alone. I choose to find this encouraging. Â Heâ€s still capable of pitching at a high level, and the inevitable collapse can be traced directly to pitch count, as opposed to the general undefined ineffectivenessÂ thatÂ is Jake Peavy’s season, as Peavy is pitching like Cain but without the initial grace period of competence.

If Cain can somehow improve his stamina during the course of the season, and he canÂ hold off traveling to Groove City longer and longer, everything else is in a position to fall into place. If not, the cavalry ain’t coming to save him.

Episode 122: Jumping the Shark

Daniel Zarchy — Fri, 18 Dec 2015 00:30:36 +0000

Episode 122: Jumping the Shark

In the hundred-and-twenty-second episode, Thomas and Danny come back from their eight-month life hiatus to break down the offseason dealings in the NL West, the Greinke, Price, and Zimmermann contracts, and the additions of Samardzija and Cueto to the Giants rotation, and try to figure out what the heck is going on with the Dodgers.

Click on the image below to find it on iTunes:Â

Episode 121: From Our Cold, Dead Hands

Daniel Zarchy — Sun, 19 Apr 2015 22:52:26 +0000

Episode 121:Â From Our Cold, Dead Hands

In the hundred-and-twenty-first episode, Thomas and Danny recap the World Series, the quiet offseason, the pitching injuries, and how terrible this team is going to be.

Click on the image below to find it on iTunes:Â

Episode 116: Miracle on the Hudson

Daniel Zarchy — Sun, 15 Jun 2014 02:34:26 +0000



Episode 116: Miracle on the Hudson

In the hundred-and-sixteenth episode, Thomas and Danny gloat about their conquest over MLB Advanced Media, enjoy the excellent Giants season so far, anticipate Brandon Belt’s return to the lineup, Tim Hudson’s Cy Young chances, and Sergio Romo’s recent struggles.

Click on the image below to find it on iTunes:Â

Episode 115: The Morse Unleashed

Daniel Zarchy — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 15:00:05 +0000





Episode 115: The Morse Unleashed

In the hundred-and-fifteenth episode, Thomas and Danny do some trivia, talk about the series loss to the Diamondbacks and win against the Rockies, strong pitching from the front of the rotation, hot hitting from an unlikely source, and look ahead to the Dodgers series.

Click on the image below to find it on iTunes:Â

Episode 106: Thomas and Danny Speculate About Mental Health

Daniel Zarchy — Fri, 21 Jun 2013 15:00:42 +0000

Episode 106: Thomas and Danny Speculate About Mental HealthÂ is out!

In the hundred-and-sixth episode, Thomas and Danny talk about the injuries to literally everybody, the return to quality pitching, decent hitting from the backups, Tim Lincecum’s mystery, and the Miami Heat.

Click on the image below to find it on iTunes:Â Â You can also find it on theÂ RSS feed, or by clicking on the play button below. We look forward to your feedback, either by commenting here on the blog, emailing us atÂ giantspod@gmail.com, or ourÂ Twitter feed. Go Giants!

Episode 104: Kickham While He’s Down

Thomas Todd — Wed, 22 May 2013 03:29:14 +0000




Episode 104: Kickham While He’s DownÂ is out!

In the hundred-and-fourth episode, Thomas and Danny talk about Vogelsong’s broken finger, Casilla’s bad knee, and just who is going to take over for all these broken players.